(Chicago, IL) — June 10, 2010. Despite going up early with his own television ads in the Chicago media market, ads from a GOP governor’s group, and relentlessly bad budget news from Springfield, State Senator Bill Brady‘s campaign against Governor Pat Quinn has stalled, according to a new poll.
Fortunately for Brady, he has stalled in the lead.
According to a Rasmussen Reports June 7 survey of 500 Illinois, Brady leads Quinn 47% to 36%.
In Rasmussen’s first poll after Brady was officially declared the winner by the Illinois State Board of Elections, the GOP senator edged Quinn 47% to 37%. In late April, Brad led 45% to 38%.
Brady began a broadcast and cable television ad campaign in the Chicago media market in May and the Republican Governors Association launched a $400,000 tv ad buy just before the new Rasmussen Illinois poll was in the field, but Brady’s numbers haven’t moved.
Quinn has run no tv ads during the same period.
Sources say that the Brady buy was relatively small because the candidate has yet to raise sufficient dough for wall-to-wall coverage week-after-week; so, its impact was limited. Moreover, Brady’s own ad attacked Quinn for wanting to raise taxes–a central Quinn agenda item on which the news media has reported relentlessly–and is unlikely new “news” to voters.
Though Brady has gained no further traction since winning the GOP nomination, it is impossible to sugarcoat the results for Quinn. Grim.
Quinn continues to fall well short of the 50% level considered critical for incumbents at this stage of a campaign. This is especially telling in President Obama’s home state which has trended Democratic in recent years.
Despite Brady’s narrow primary win, he now has the support of 80% of Republican voters. By comparison, Quinn who also narrowly defeated a primary challenger gets just 60% of Democratic votes. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer the Republican by better than two-to-one.
Quinn will likely bring home rank-and-file Democrats who have yet to warm to his candidacy, but he will need to spend precious resources–time and money–working to goose his base while Brady can focus his efforts on the precious 10% of undecided voters who will decide the contest.
Add the sour mood of the electorate, the Illinois 11.2% unemployment rate to the electoral mix, the historic tendency of undecided voters to break to the challenger and a Brady victory seems entirely likely.
For Quinn to overcome Brady lead, he will need to deploy his secret weapon–Bill Brady.
Brady’s right-wing record and voting history opposition to abortion, gay rights, minimum wage, equal pay for women and other issues puts him out of whack with the more moderate temper of Illinois voters–Democrats and Republicans alike. Moreover, Brady has proved unsteady on the campaign trail, for example, denying, repeatedly, he advocated for a “10% across the board budget cuts” even when tv news video shows otherwise.
Quinn’s campaign has a chance to turn the race on its head, but Quinn, who micromanaged his primary campaign against Dan Hynes according to sources, must allow his campaign to do its job and he do his.
If not, it will be a Governor Brady come January 2011.