(Chicago, IL) — October 27, 2010. Further depressing news is rolling in for Illinois Democratic candidates–likely Democratic voter turnout has stagnated, according to a new review of poll data.
Despite recent and repeat visits by President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama to Illinois to “fire up” Illinois Democratic voters, rank-and-file Democrats have been unmoved by the first couple’s efforts and other rallies to boost the base.
Unlike West Virginia and Pennsylvania Democrats, Illinois Democratic interest to vote on November 2 has not budged since August, according to a new poll data analysis by Public Policy Polling:
One of the biggest hopes for Democrats heading toward election day has been that the party’s voters will get more engaged as the election comes closer, helping to mitigate its losses. A PPP analysis of 9 states where we’ve polled in October and also conducted a survey in August or September finds that the likely electorate for this fall is trending more Democratic- but not nearly to the extent the party needs.
The likely electorate in Illinois in August was Obama +9 and when we polled there last weekend it was still Obama +9. Usually for a Republican to win in a blue state like Illinois they would need a massive advantage with independents and to win over a fair number of Democrats. Mark Kirk and Bill Brady are doing neither of those things but still in a position to win because of what’s likely to be a massive drop in Democratic turnout in the state.
Former President Bill Clinton swooped into Illinois this week for a 1,000-plus rally at a Chicago hotel and President Obama is expected here this weekend for a major rally to goose Democrats.
Unless these last minute efforts by Clinton and Obama finally mobilize Illinois Democrats, Quinn and Giannoulias will be facing cooked gooses.