(Chicago, IL) – November 1, 2010. The nation’s two polling giants—Gallup and Pew—are out with new polls that differ significantly on the GOP advantage on the national generic ballot, a difference that has consequences for close races in Illinois.
Gallup’s Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters gives the GOP a 15 point advantage and a Pew poll conducted Oct. 27-30 among 2,373 registered voters, including 1,809 likely voters, gives Republicans “only” a six edge.
[The poll] finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot — depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup’s analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.
The poll, considered the most likely to vote, shows that 48% of likely voters say they will vote for the Republican in their district, compared with 42% who favor the Democratic candidate.
If the Gallup numbers are more accurate, at the local level Illinois Democrats, led by Governor Pat Quinn and U.S. Senate hopeful Alexi Giannoulias, could face a wipe out tomorrow.